Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 09 May 2016

The step down in job gains could temper expectations of a strong rebound in economic activity in the second quarter after growth nearly stalled in the first three months of the year.U.S. oil drillers cut rigs for a seventh week in a row to the lowest

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
? Major News
The step down in job gains could temper expectations of a strong rebound in economic activity in the second quarter after growth nearly stalled in the first three months of the year.U.S. oil drillers cut rigs for a seventh week in a row to the lowest level since October 2009, oil services company Baker Hughes Inc said Friday, although as analysts see an end to the nearly two-year slump in drilling for new wells. Drillers cut four oil rigs in the week to May 6, bringing the total rig count down to 328, that compares with the 668 rigs operating a year ago, Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report.The Federal Reserve might still raise U.S. interest rates twice this year, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said on Friday. Two rate hikes remain a "reasonable expectation" despite hiring data for April that was lower than investors expected, Dudley said in an interview with the New York Times.US Nonfarm payrolls increased by 160,000 jobs last month as construction employment barely rose and the retail sector shed jobs for the first time since December 2014, the Labor Department said on Friday. The unemployment rate held at 5.0 percent last month that was because people dropped out of the labor force.

? Bullion
The U.S. economy added the fewest number of jobs in seven months in April and Americans dropped out of the labor force, signs of weakness that left some economists anticipating only one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 160,000 jobs last month as construction employment barely rose and the retail sector shed jobs for the first time since December 2014, the Labor Department said on Friday. Though the unemployment rate held at 5.0 percent last month that was because people dropped out of the labor force. The step down in job gains could temper expectations of a strong rebound in economic activity in the second quarter after growth nearly stalled in the first three months of the year. The Labor Department report showed the U.S. economy added 160,000 jobs in April, the fewest in seven months, and Americans dropped out of the labor force in droves, signs of weakness that cast doubts on whether the Fed will lift rates before the end of the year. Spot prices are up 21 percent this year on expectations the Fed will delay further rate hikes. Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. U.S. short-term interest rate futures contracts rose after the payrolls data, suggesting traders see a better chance the Fed will wait longer to act. Investor sentiment toward gold showed signs of optimism. Assets of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to the highest in over two years on Thursday at 829.44 tonnes.Gold jumped 1 percent on Friday after U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April came in weaker than expected, boosting expectations the Federal Reserve will delay further interest rate increases.

? Energy
Oil prices edged up on Friday, supported by an early dip in the dollar and a wildfire that has shrunk Canadian oil sands crude output by a third, but Brent still ended with its sharpest weekly drop in four months as investors cashed out of April's big rally. Crude oil prices rose by 0.31 per cent on Thursday as regional investors took a drop in US production as bullish. Investors digested the sharpest one-week production decline in US production in nearly a year and a stronger than expected build in domestic crude stockpiles last week. At the MCX, crude oil futures for May 2016 contract were trading at Rs. 2,978 per barrel, up by 2.65 per cent, after opening at Rs. 2,925 against the previous closing price of Rs. 2,901. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 2,985 till the trading. (At 12.45 PM today). However, gains were limited after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report that US commercial crude inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels for the week ending on April 29 in comparison with the previous week indicating that the demand for the commodity in US, world’s largest consumer of crude oil is weak.

? Base Metal
Tracking a weak trend in base metals overseas and subdued domestic demand, copper prices fell by 0.79% to Rs 333.30 per kg in futures trade today, as traders trimmed positions. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to a weak trend in base metals following disappointing China's latest PMI data. China's April official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.1 from 50.2 in March, signalling a modest weakening of momentum for the world's second-largest economy despite easy-credit policies and a stronger real-estate market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in June fell by Rs 2.65, or 0.79%, to Rs 333.30 per kg, in a business turnover of 1,290 lots. The metal for delivery in far-month August also fell by a similar margin to trade at Rs 337.65 per kg in a turnover of nine lots.Nickel gained more than 11 percent last month on speculation over the potential for improved demand from stainless steel mills in China. .Nickel futures were trading higher during noon trade in the domestic market on Friday as investors and speculators booked fresh positions in the industrial metal amid a pickup in physical demand for Nickel from alloy-makers in the domestic spot market. However, the gains in the metal were restricted by diminishing hopes over a pickup in demand from China, the world’s biggest metals consumer, as the country’s private sector activity expanded at a slower pace in April, with the Composite PMI falling to 50.8 in April from 51.3 in March, but remaining above the neutral 50-mark. Nickel futures for May 2016 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 603.20 per kg, up by 0.92 per cent after opening at Rs. 599, against the previous closing price of Rs. 597.7. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 604.50. 
Zinc prices fell by 0.36 per cent as speculators reduced positions in the midst of a weak trend globally. Price further fell due to low demand in domestic spot markets. Zinc futures for May 2016 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 123.45 per kg, down by 0.36 per cent after opening at Rs. 123.85 against the previous closing price of Rs. 123.90. It touched the intra-day low of Rs.123.40 till the trading. (At 11.26 AM today). However, losses were limited due to the decline in the zinc stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME zinc stocks falls to 396400 metric tonnes as on May 6, 2016. Major refined zinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc importing countries are China, USA and Germany.
Lead prices fell by 0.94 per cent at the domestic markets due to the surge in the lead stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the weak demand for the commodity. LME lead stocks rose by 550 metric tonnes to 174675 metric tonnes as on May 5, 2016. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the May 2016 contract, is trading at Rs 116.30 per kg, down by 0.94 per cent, after opening at Rs 117.25, against a previous close of Rs 117.40. It touched an intra-day low of Rs 116.10 till the trading. Prices also fell due to low demand from battery-makers and other consuming industries at the domestic spot market as well as a weak trend at the global market.

? NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
? Major News
India has received foreign direct investment (FDI) of $397.08 million in the last four years for promotion of its agriculture sector, with maximum inflows from Mauritius followed by Singapore and Germany. Foreign investment of $397.08 million was received for promoting the country's agriculture sector during April 2012 and February 2016. Maximum inflow of $141.69 million FDI was from Mauritius, followed by Singapore $119.95 million, Germany $25.74 million, France $20.71 million and the US $20.60 million in the said period, he said. The minister placed the FDI inflow data of 30 countries before the Upper House. Under the MoU signed with Israel, the minister said the action plan for 2015-18 is under way and centres of excellence for vegetables and fruits and integrated bee keeping development, among others, will be set up in 21 states.The technology transfer and training is provided by Israeli experts through their visits to India. Indian scientists and experts also visit Israel to get training before imparting technology at the field level in areas of energy-efficient green houses, precision irrigation and recycling of domestic waste for irrigation, among others, he added.

? Jeera
Jeera prices closed lower by 0.5 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for May 2016 contract closed at Rs. 16,845 per quintal, down by 0.5 per cent, after opening at Rs. 16,890 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,930. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 16,820. According to Department of Commerce data, the export of jeera during Apr until Jan 2015-16 is 71983 tonnes, compared to 137742 tonnes during the same period last year. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 3540 tonnes and 170 MT are in process as on 4 th May 2016.

? RM Seed
Mustard seed prices closed higher by 0.48 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for May 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,390 per quintal, up by 0.48 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,361 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,369. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 4,404.

? Chana
Chana prices closed higher 0.44 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the traders enlarged their holdings in the commodity on account of the good demand in the market. At the NCDEX, chana futures for May 2016 contract closed at Rs. 5,527 per quintal, up by 0.44 per cent, after opening at Rs. 5,510 against the previous closing price of Rs. 5,503. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 5,578. Moreover, the restricted arrivals of the commodity in the physical market due to lower estimated output also influenced the chana prices. Central government has given instruction on Wednesday to import 26000 tonnes of pulses form April onwards and out of which 10000 tonnes of pulses have already reached in the country. In order to reduce the prices of pulses in Delhi central government has supplied 400 tonnes of urad and tur which would be sold at Rs.120 per Kg through central repository outlets from Wednesday. According to food ministry in the country during 2015-16, pulses import has been 58 lakh tonnes while during 2014- 15, it was 46 lakh tonnes.However despite the high import of pulses, it is lower than the demand.Total supply of pulses in the country during the year 2015-16 is recorded about 229 lakh tonnes while the demand is about 237 lakh tonnes. According to latest data from the Canadian Grain Commission, during the week ended April 24 Canada has exported 30,400 tonnes of peas and only 200 tonnes of lentils.


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