Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 19 March 2018

Gold prices held firm on Friday as tensions between the United Kingdom and Russia and renewed U.S. political concerns offset worries about a possible U.S. rate hike next week. Gold prices fell 0.7 percent in the previous session under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar rose versus a currency basket as traders awaiting next week's Federal Reserve meeting eyed data that showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week


BULLION

Gold prices held firm on Friday as tensions between the United Kingdom and Russia and renewed U.S. political concerns offset worries about a possible U.S. rate hike next week. Gold prices fell 0.7 percent in the previous session under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar rose versus a currency basket as traders awaiting next week's Federal Reserve meeting eyed data that showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week.

ENERGY

Oil prices remained sideways on Friday after the International Energy Agency said global crude demand would accelerate this year but warned supply is growing at a faster pace. NYMEX crude for April delivery was up 5 cents or 0.1 percent at $61.24 a barrel at 0048 GMT after settling up 23 cents on Thursday.

Natural gas futures fell nearly two percent in American trade away from February 5 highs for the third session as the dollar index rose for the second straight session from one-week lows .

Base Metals

Copper prices fell on Friday as the dollar strengthened ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting at which the U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time this year. A stronger green back makes metals more expensive for holders of other currencies and can weigh on prices.Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.1 percent at $6,914 a tonne by 0210 GMT extending a 1 percent loss in the previous session. It is on course for a 0.7 percent weekly drop.


SPICES

Rising arrivals of new crop and an overall high crop estimate have limited the up trend. Due to high prevailing rates last year more sowing was done for this crop. Good rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan further boosted productivity aspects and traders estimate the crop to be between 65-75 lakh bags. Jeer acreage in Gujarat is up by 38% to 3.83 lakh hectares as on 15-Jan-18. Acreage was 2.88 lakh ha at that same time.

Moderate firmness returned for Turmeric after the recent fall. However prices faced strong resistance near the psychological 7000 mark. As the new crop arrivals gradually come down with harvesting season getting over the demand for the new crop started poring in and supporting the falling market sentiments.
OILSEEDS

Mentha Oil found some support after the recent fall in prices though overall sentiments remained slight weak for now. Lack of strong demand amidst reports of higher sowing kept up trend limited. High prices seen last week have ensured better sowing this year.

Soya oil, after initial dips posted moderate recovery later. Strength in palm oil continued supporting the domestic soya oil market. As per sources India palm oil imports have risen in February due to improving demand before the summer season starts. Reports state that imports in the world biggest buyer I.e. India has jumped by nearly 8 percent to 795,000 metric tons from a year earlier.

GUAR COMPLEX

Prices failed to hold onto the higher levels for Guar as it traded with high volatility. Expected pick up in export demand in coming weeks at these lower levels could support prices however as prices found some support near psychological 9000 mark. Lack of strong export demand with falling crude oil prices amidst reports of higher stocks had kept pressure on prices. Reports of higher carry forward stock too kept up trend limited.

Others

Spot buying improved during later hours hence futures posted some recovery. For the current week April RM seed might trade in the price band of 4105-4225, unless new season supplies start intensifying.

Viewing technically NCDEX Apr soy bean has a strong support region around 3550-3600 for the current month and expect the downside to be capped unless the 3500 support gets breached on a closing basis. Bullish tone in soy meal shall continue helping prices to bounce from support levels moving forward.
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